DETUROPE - The Central European Journal of Regional Development and Tourism 2014, 6(1):50-64 | DOI: 10.32725/det.2014.004
Predmet istraživanja u ovom radu je predviđanje kretanja proizvodnih parametara značajnijih vrsta povrća u Republici Srpskoj, odnosno površina, prinosa i ukupne proizvodnje sledećih vrsta povrća: pasulj, krastavac i kupus i kelj. Osnova za ocenu adekvatnih modela kojim je izvedeno predviđanje su podaci o proizvodnim parametrima navedenih vrsta povrća u periodu od 1996 - 2011 godine. Na osnovu ocenjenih modela izvedeno je predviđanje vrednosti posmatranih parametara do 2016. godine.
Predviđanje je zasnovano na savremenim kvantitativnim metodama, konkretno primenjen je metod analize vremenskih serija, odnosno korišćeni su odgovarajući ARIMA modeli. Izbor oblika modela rezultat je kvalitativne analize i statističkih kriterijuma.
Predviđanje površina pokazuje da će doći do promena u strukturi setve posmatranih vrsta povrća u Republici Srpskoj do 2016. godine. Površine pasulja biće smanjene za oko 600 ha, dok će površine krastavaca, kupusa i kelja, za toliko biti povećane. Prinose krastavaca, kupusa i kelja u periodu predviđanja karakteriše stabilnost, dok manje oscilacije pokazuju prinosi pasulja. Tendencije koje karakterišu površine i prinose posmatranih kultura direktno se odražavaju na njihovu proizvodnju. Predviđena proizvodnja pasulja 2016. godine biće niža za oko 500 tona u odnosu na 2011. godinu, a posledica je pre svega smanjenja površina pod pasuljom. Stabilnu proizvodnju u toku perioda predviđanja imaće kupus i kelj. Predviđena proizvodnja biće veća za krastavaca za oko 1.300 tona, na kraju perioda predviđanja.
Rezultati predviđanja mogu poslužiti kao osnova za kvalitativnu analizu proizvodnje i razvoja povrtarstva u Republici Srpskoj, kao i za definisanje politike i strategije razvoja povrtarstva u narednom periodu i koncipiranje mera agrarne politike za pospešivanje razvoja proizvodnje, potrošnje, prerade i izvoza posmatranih vrsta povrća.
The research object in my work is bassed on forecasting the production parameters about significant types of vegetables in Republic of Srpska regarding to the surface, yield and total production of the following vegetables: beans, cucumber and cabbage and kale.The basis to estimate adequate models with whom have been derived the prediction are the informations (data) of production parameters,mentioned types of vegetables from 1996-2011 year. On the basis of estimated model is derived predicting the values of the parameters observed in 2016. year.
The prediction is based on modern quantitative methods, specifically applied the method of time series analysis , and used the appropriate ARIMA models.The form choice of the model is the result of qualitative analysis and statistical criteria.
Prediction of the surface shows that there will be changes in the structure of the observed planting vegetables in the Republic of Srpska in 2016. year. The bean surface will be reduced by approximately 600 ha,while the cucumbers ,cabbage and kale surface will be increased for those values. Yields of cucumbers, cabbage and kale in the forecasting period is characterized by stability, as minor fluctuations indicate yields of beans. Tendencies that characterize the area and yield the observed culture is directly reflected in their production. Anticipated production of beans 2016th. The lower will be approximately 500 tons as compared to the 2011th year , a consequence primarily of reducing the area under beans. Stable production during the forecasting period will have cabbage and kale. Anticipated production will be higher for cucumbers for about 1,300 tons at the end of the forecasting period.
Results predictions can serve as a basis for qualitative analysis of the production and development of vegetable growing in the Republic of Srpska, as well as for policy and strategy development of vegetable growing in the future and design of agricultural policy measures to encourage the development of production, consumption, processing and export of the observed types of vegetables.
Published: March 31, 2014 Show citation
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